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Volume 66, Number 9, May 9, 2006
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NEUROLOGY 2006;66:1350-1355
© 2006 American Academy of Neurology

Predictors of hemorrhage in patients with untreated brain arteriovenous malformation

C. Stapf, MD, H. Mast, MD, R. R. Sciacca, EngScD, J. H. Choi, MD, A. V. Khaw, MD, E. S. Connolly, MD, J. Pile-Spellman, MD and J. P. Mohr, MD

From the Doris and Stanley Tananbaum Stroke Center/Neurological Institute (C.S., H.M., J.H.C., A.V.K., J.P.M.), Department of Internal Medicine (R.R.S.), Division of Neurosurgery/Neurological Institute (E.S.C.), and Interventional Neuroradiology/Department of Radiology (J.P.-S.), Columbia University, New York, NY; Department of Neurology (H..M.), BG Kliniken Bergmannstrost, Halle/Salle, Germany; and Department of Neurology (C.S.), Hôpital Lariboisière, AP-HP, Paris, France.

Address correspondence and reprint requests to Dr. C. Stapf, Stroke Center/Neurological Institute, Columbia University, 710 W. 168 Street, New York, NY 10032; e-mail: cstapf{at}neuro.columbia.edu

Background: Intracranial hemorrhage is a serious possible complication in patients with brain arteriovenous malformation (AVM). Several morphologic factors associated with hemorrhagic AVM presentation have been established, but their relevance for the risk of subsequent AVM hemorrhage remains unclear.

Methods: The authors analyzed follow-up data on 622 consecutive patients from the prospective Columbia AVM database, limited to the period between initial AVM diagnosis and the start of treatment (i.e., any endovascular, surgical, or radiation therapy). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were applied to analyze the effect of patient age, gender, AVM size, anatomic location, venous drainage pattern, and associated arterial aneurysms on the risk of intracranial hemorrhage at initial presentation and during follow-up.

Results: The mean pretreatment follow-up was 829 days (median: 102 days), during which 39 (6%) patients experienced AVM hemorrhage. Increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.08), initial hemorrhagic AVM presentation (HR 5.38, 95% CI 2.64 to 10.96), deep brain location (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.30 to 8.16), and exclusive deep venous drainage (HR 3.25, 95% CI 1.01 to 5.67) were independent predictors of subsequent hemorrhage. Annual hemorrhage rates on follow-up ranged from 0.9% for patients without hemorrhagic AVM presentation, deep AVM location, or deep venous drainage to as high as 34.4% for those harboring all three risk factors.

Conclusions: Hemorrhagic arteriovenous malformation (AVM) presentation, increasing age, deep brain location, and exclusive deep venous drainage appear to be independent predictors for AVM hemorrhage during natural history follow-up. The risk of spontaneous hemorrhage may be low in AVMs without these risk factors.


Additional material related to this article can be found on the Neurology Web site. Go to www.neurology.org and scroll down the Table of Contents for the May 9 issue to find the title link for this article.

Supported by NIH grant R01 NS 40792–01 (J.P.M.).

Disclosure: The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Received August 11, 2005. Accepted in final form January 20, 2006.


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Correspondence:

Read all Correspondence

Predictors of hemorrhage in patients with untreated brain arteriovenous malformation
John F. Dashe
Neurology Online, 12 Sep 2006 [Full text]
Reply from the Authors
Christian Stapf, et al.
Neurology Online, 12 Sep 2006 [Full text]



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